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This wasn’t supposed to become a premiership conversation quite so quickly. Four seasons into their NRL life, the Dolphins have already secured a top-four finish and will play finals football for the first time.
Making September was the breakthrough, but the way this season has developed has pushed the conversation considerably further. Around Redcliffe, there is now a much more intriguing question to ask: can the Dolphins actually win the thing?
There is enough evidence to take the possibility seriously, without pretending there aren’t weaknesses that could bring the whole run undone.
An Attack Built to Hurt the Best
The Dolphins have attacking threats everywhere. Isaiya Katoa has 16 try assists from 19 appearances and increasingly controls the way this team plays, while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow can open a game from almost anywhere and Herbie Farnworth has combined 12 tries with 143 tackle breaks this season.
Then there is Jamayne Isaako, Selwyn Cobbo and Kodi Nikorima, with a forward pack capable of creating the room for all of them. Give the Dolphins momentum and there aren’t many comfortable places for a defensive line to look.
But we knew they could score. The Dolphins led the NRL with 721 points last season and still finished ninth because too much of that attacking work was being given back at the other end.
That’s why some of the most encouraging signs in 2026 have come without the ball.
The Roosters Win Told Us Something Different
The 26–12 win at Allianz Stadium last weekend wasn’t another afternoon of the Dolphins simply running somebody off the park. Tom Flegler and Morgan Knowles were both sin-binned, briefly reducing them to 11 men, and suddenly the afternoon became as much about scrambling and surviving as scoring.
They handled it. Max Plath forcing Siua Wong into touch was one of several defensive moments that won’t dominate the season highlights, but collectively they said plenty about how this team has changed.
A year after defence helped keep the Dolphins out of September, they had just won a significant late-season game partly because of it. For their premiership prospects, that may tell us more than another six-try afternoon would have.
The Case Against Starts With 66–0
Any serious assessment also has to deal with what happened against Cronulla.
The Sharks beat the Dolphins 66–0 at Kayo Stadium in July, the heaviest loss in the club’s NRL history. Katoa was injured, while Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo were rested after Origin, leaving the Dolphins without several important attacking players.
Sixty-six points is still 66 points.
There have been less dramatic warning signs as well. Brisbane led 24–0 in the Battle of Brisbane before the Dolphins produced that extraordinary 40–32 comeback, a result that showed enormous resilience while also exposing how quickly a game can get away from them.
Against the Broncos, there was enough time and attacking quality to repair the damage. A September opponent may not offer the same opportunity.
They Know They Can Trouble the Heavyweights
This isn’t a premiership case built entirely on potential.
The Dolphins beat the Warriors 26–24 in June and have beaten the Roosters twice, first 48–10 and then 26–12. Penrith needed Nathan Cleary in golden point to get past them 23–22 in Darwin.
Regular-season results won’t buy them anything once the finals begin, but they do remove some of the mystery. The Dolphins already know their football can trouble the sides expected to be around deep into September.
Even the nature of those performances is encouraging. They have blown a contender away, survived a tight finish, fought back from 24 points down and, against the Roosters last weekend, defended their way through periods of serious disadvantage.
That’s a useful collection of experiences for a team about to enter unfamiliar territory.
Plenty Have Been Here Before — Katoa Hasn’t
The Dolphins may be finals newcomers, but the dressing room isn’t devoid of September experience. Felise Kaufusi won two premierships with Melbourne, Morgan Knowles won four Super League titles at St Helens — three under Kristian Woolf — while Flegler and Farnworth were part of Brisbane’s run to the 2023 NRL Grand Final.
The more fascinating unknown sits at halfback.
Katoa will enter his first NRL finals series at 22, carrying considerably more responsibility than simply creating tries. Finals football will inevitably produce stretches when the Dolphins aren’t rolling forward and the space around their dangerous outside backs disappears.
Those are the moments when his kicking, patience and game management become every bit as important as his attacking instincts. We have watched Katoa develop into one of the central figures in this Dolphins side; what we haven’t seen is how he controls a match when an entire season is sitting on the next few sets.
Good Enough? Yes. Proven? Not Yet.
Sixteen wins, a +152 points differential and a guaranteed top-four finish make the strongest argument. The Dolphins don’t need to be talked into the premiership conversation on sentiment anymore; their season has put them there.
The reasons for caution haven’t vanished. Cronulla demonstrated their floor can still be alarmingly low, the defence has had damaging stretches and some of the players carrying the greatest responsibility are heading into their first NRL finals campaign.
But this no longer looks like a team simply delighted to have made September. The attack has always been dangerous; the difference in 2026 is that the Dolphins have shown more ways to stay alive when their preferred game isn’t available.
That doesn’t make them favourites. It makes them legitimate.
For four seasons, Redcliffe has watched this club build towards September. What happens once they get there is still unknown, and that’s precisely what makes the next few weeks so compelling.
The Dolphins have built their first finals team. September will tell us whether, almost without anyone noticing, they built a premiership team too.
Published 3-September-2026
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